Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $154,445$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,130.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(148,130.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,878$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,405.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,405.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,563$ on 2020-06-01

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,769$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,862.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(156,862.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,563$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(831 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,421.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,259$ on 2020-06-01

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,762$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,092.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,092.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $220$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(6.16 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(303.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,643$ on 2020-06-01

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,169$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,621.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,621.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $285$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(67.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,006$ on 2020-06-01

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,192$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(683 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,975.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 83.9)}}\) (asimptote \(44,975.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $266$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(20 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{270.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(270.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,588$ on 2020-06-01

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,142$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,820.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(112,820.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $525$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(40.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{837.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.7)}}\) (asimptote \(837.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,311$ on 2020-06-01

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $949$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{911.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(911.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $142$ on 2020-06-01

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,433$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(600 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,969.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(91,969.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,956$ on 2020-06-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Taiwan* recovered 97%
Japan recovered 88%
Turkey recovered 61%
Georgia recovered 57%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 30%
Saudi Arabia recovered 22%

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(129 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(436.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-01

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-01

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,787$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,622.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,622.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $899$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(67.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{956.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(956.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,425$ on 2020-06-01

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $794$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(101 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{768.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(768.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(13.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-06-01

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,292$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(391 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,406.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,406.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,802$ on 2020-06-01